Technologies That Will Disappear Within Five Years

The Graveyard of Everyday Tech

Technology disappears in stages. First, it becomes optional. Then inconvenient. Then nostalgic. Finally, incomprehensible to younger generations. “Wait, you had to physically insert a card to get phone service?”

We’re in the middle of several such transitions right now. Technologies that feel essential today are already optional for early adopters and will seem quaint within five years. Not science fiction technologies—mundane, everyday things you probably used this morning.

The pattern is predictable: a better alternative emerges, adoption reaches critical mass, infrastructure shifts, and suddenly the old way seems absurd. We’ve seen it with film cameras, paper maps, physical media. The same pattern is unfolding now with technologies we take for granted.

My British lilac cat, Mochi, has never known a world with wired internet. She’s witnessed the disappearance of ethernet cables from my home office, replaced by mesh WiFi that follows her from room to room. She doesn’t appreciate the convenience, but she no longer trips over cables, which is progress from her perspective.

This article examines technologies on the path to obsolescence. Not technologies that might disappear—technologies that will disappear, based on current adoption curves and infrastructure changes already underway. Some predictions are safer than others; we’ll note confidence levels throughout.

Physical SIM Cards: Already Dead

Confidence: Very High Timeline: Mainstream obsolescence by 2028

The physical SIM card is perhaps the most certain casualty. eSIM technology—embedded SIMs programmed remotely—has already won. We’re just waiting for the installed base to turn over.

The evidence is overwhelming:

• Apple removed physical SIM trays from US iPhone 14 models in 2022
• By 2026, most flagship Android phones support eSIM-only operation
• Carriers prefer eSIM (lower support costs, no physical logistics)
• Regulators have mandated eSIM support in many markets

Physical SIMs survive only for edge cases: travelers who swap local SIMs, prepaid users in developing markets, and the paranoid who want removable identity. These use cases are shrinking.

The transition hasn’t been entirely smooth. eSIM activation sometimes fails. Transferring eSIMs between devices requires carrier involvement. Some carriers charge fees for eSIM transfers that physical SIMs didn’t incur. But these are growing pains, not fundamental obstacles.

By 2028, physical SIM trays will be like headphone jacks—present on budget phones, absent from flagships, and increasingly forgotten. By 2031, explaining what a SIM card looked like will require pictures.

What replaces it: eSIM profiles managed through software. Multiple profiles on one device. Instant carrier switching. No tiny cards to lose.

Charging Cables: Mostly Dead

Confidence: High Timeline: Significant reduction by 2029, near-elimination by 2031

Cables won’t disappear entirely, but their role is shrinking rapidly. Wireless charging has crossed the convenience threshold for most use cases. The remaining use cases—fast charging, data transfer, and power-hungry devices—are also finding wireless solutions.

The shift is happening in stages:

Phones: Most flagship phones support wireless charging. MagSafe and Qi2 standards provide consistent positioning. Charging speeds now rival cable charging for daily use cases. The cable drawer is becoming a backup option.

Earbuds and wearables: Almost universally wireless charging. When did you last plug in your AirPods case? Smartwatches charge on pucks. Fitness trackers have proprietary wireless solutions.

Laptops: The last holdout, but changing. USB-C power delivery still dominates, but wireless charging pads capable of laptop power (65W+) are emerging. Apple is rumored to be working on wireless MacBook charging.

Data transfer: Cloud sync has eliminated most cable data transfer. AirDrop, Quick Share, and equivalent technologies handle device-to-device transfers. Cables remain for large media files and professional workflows, but these represent a small percentage of transfers.

The cable won’t completely die. Professional environments need reliability. Emergency charging scenarios benefit from cables. But for typical consumers, cables are becoming “that thing in the junk drawer” rather than daily essentials.

What replaces it: Wireless charging pads, surfaces, and furniture with integrated charging. Long-range wireless power for low-power devices. Cloud-based data synchronization.

Passwords: Dying Slowly

Confidence: High Timeline: Significant reduction by 2028, marginal use by 2031

Passwords are terrible. We all know this. They’re hard to remember, easy to steal, and constantly compromised in data breaches. The cybersecurity industry has been trying to kill them for decades.

Finally, the replacement is ready. Passkeys—cryptographic credentials stored on devices and authenticated by biometrics—provide better security with better usability. They’re phishing-resistant by design. They can’t be reused across sites. They’re already supported by Apple, Google, Microsoft, and major websites.

The adoption curve is steep:

• 2022: Passkey standards finalized
• 2024: Major platforms support passkey creation and login
• 2026: Most major services offer passkey options
• 2028: Password-only authentication becomes a red flag
• 2031: Passwords persist only for legacy systems and edge cases

The transition is faster than previous authentication changes because passkeys are genuinely easier. Users don’t resist passwordless login—they embrace it. Face ID or fingerprint beats typing 16 random characters every time.

Some friction remains. Passkey recovery when devices are lost is still awkward. Cross-platform passkey management has rough edges. Enterprise environments with complex requirements move slowly. But the direction is clear.

Passwords won’t vanish completely. They’ll persist as backup authentication, for account recovery, for systems too old to update. But routine password entry—dozens of times per day for active internet users—is already declining and will become rare.

What replaces it: Passkeys authenticated by biometrics (Face ID, fingerprint, Windows Hello). Device-based authentication. Contextual authentication factors.

Physical Wallets: Endangered

Confidence: Medium-High Timeline: Optional by 2028, rare by 2031 in developed markets

The wallet in your pocket contains:

• Cash (increasingly unused)
• Credit/debit cards (replaced by phone payments)
• ID cards (being digitized)
• Loyalty cards (long since app-based)
• Photos (wait, people still carry printed photos?)

Each component is independently migrating to digital form:

Payments: Apple Pay, Google Pay, and equivalents are accepted almost everywhere contactless payments work. Tap your phone or watch. The physical card is backup.

Identity: Digital driver’s licenses are live in numerous US states and many countries. Mobile ID standards are maturing. Within five years, your phone will be accepted identification for most purposes.

Cash: Already marginal in many countries (Sweden, South Korea) and declining rapidly elsewhere. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will accelerate this transition.

Some people will always carry physical wallets. Cash remains important for unbanked populations, informal economies, and privacy. Physical ID is required in some contexts. But for typical urban knowledge workers, the wallet is becoming vestigial.

Mochi has no wallet and seems perfectly content. Granted, she has no money, no ID requirement, and her loyalty program consists of persistent meowing. But she’s ahead of the curve conceptually.

What replaces it: Smartphone-based payment, identity, and membership cards. Biometric authentication for high-security contexts. Peer-to-peer digital payments for informal transactions.

Remote Controls: Fragmented to Extinction

Confidence: Medium-High Timeline: Voice/app primary by 2029, physical remotes rare by 2031

How many remote controls do you own? TV, soundbar, streaming box, Blu-ray player, air conditioner, fan, lights… The proliferation has become absurd. And it’s unsustainable.

Multiple forces are converging to eliminate remote controls:

Voice control: Alexa, Google Assistant, Siri, and other voice assistants control entertainment systems without physical interaction. “Play The Office on the living room TV” requires no remote.

Universal apps: Smartphone apps control most smart devices. One interface for everything, always in your pocket, never lost in couch cushions.

Gesture control: Emerging systems recognize hand movements for basic controls. Wave to pause. Point to adjust volume. Not yet mainstream but developing.

Predictive automation: Smart home systems learn preferences and automate routine changes. Lights dim automatically at movie time. Thermostat adjusts to schedules. Manual control becomes the exception.

Physical remotes survive for situations where voice isn’t appropriate (sleeping partner, noisy environments) and for users who prefer tactile interaction. But their role is shrinking from primary to backup.

What replaces it: Voice assistants, smartphone apps, automation systems, and gesture recognition. Consolidated control through smart home platforms.

Plastic Cards: Multiple Casualties

Confidence: Medium-High Timeline: Significant reduction by 2029

Beyond payment and identity cards, numerous plastic cards are disappearing:

Key cards and access badges: Office buildings increasingly use smartphone-based access. Your phone is already enrolled in corporate systems. The plastic badge adds nothing.

Transit cards: Major transit systems accept contactless payment from phones and watches. Dedicated transit cards are becoming unnecessary in cities where tap-to-pay works.

Insurance cards: Digital insurance cards are accepted by providers and pharmacies. The physical card is backup.

Gift cards: Digital delivery dominates. Physical gift cards remain for retail display and recipients without smartphones.

Business cards: Already marginalized by LinkedIn, QR codes, and contact-sharing features. Physical cards signal either traditionalism or industries where they remain customary.

The plastic card won’t fully disappear—some contexts require physical backup, some populations lack smartphones—but the average person’s card count will decline dramatically.

What replaces it: Smartphone-based credentials, NFC-enabled devices, cloud-verified identity, and digital storage of card information.

Dedicated GPS Devices: Nearly Gone

Confidence: Very High Timeline: Consumer market collapse by 2028

Remember Garmin, TomTom, and standalone GPS units? They still exist, technically, but their consumer market has collapsed. Smartphones provide superior navigation with always-current maps, traffic data, and voice assistance.

Standalone GPS survives in niches:

• Aviation and marine (certified systems)
• Professional fleet management
• Off-road and outdoor activities (durability, battery life)
• Users who refuse smartphones

But the days of mounting a GPS on your dashboard are over for mainstream consumers. The transition is essentially complete; we’re just waiting for existing devices to break.

What replaces it: Smartphone navigation apps (Google Maps, Apple Maps, Waze). In-vehicle infotainment systems. Eventually, autonomous vehicle systems that don’t need human navigation input.

Printed Receipts: Accelerating Decline

Confidence: High Timeline: Optional everywhere by 2028, rare by 2031

Thermal paper receipts are wasteful, inconvenient, and increasingly unnecessary. The chemicals in thermal paper are concerning. The paper fades. Nobody files them. Digital alternatives are superior in every way.

The shift is well underway:

• Major retailers offer digital receipts by default
• Many jurisdictions ban or restrict receipt paper due to BPA/BPS concerns
• Expense management systems prefer digital documentation
• Environmental concerns drive consumer and business preference

Physical receipts will remain available for those who want them, but defaulting to digital eliminates the routine printing of paper that gets immediately discarded.

What replaces it: Email receipts, SMS receipts, payment app transaction history, and digital receipt management apps.

Method

This analysis synthesizes multiple indicators of technology transition:

Step 1: Adoption Curve Analysis I examined adoption rates of replacement technologies across markets, identifying which have crossed the critical mass threshold.

Step 2: Infrastructure Assessment I evaluated whether supporting infrastructure (standards, regulations, manufacturing) supports full transition.

Step 3: Barrier Identification I catalogued remaining barriers to adoption and assessed likelihood of resolution within five years.

Step 4: Market Signals I analyzed corporate behavior (product decisions, investment directions) as leading indicators of market direction.

Step 5: Historical Pattern Matching I compared current transitions to previous technology replacements to calibrate timeline estimates.

Technologies That Might Disappear (But Might Not)

Some technologies are on shakier ground—potential casualties with significant uncertainty:

Laptop Keyboards

The laptop keyboard could evolve into touch surfaces, voice input, or external peripherals. But typing remains efficient for many tasks, and the installed base of keyboard-trained users is enormous. Maybe partial decline, probably not elimination.

Steering Wheels

Autonomous vehicles don’t need steering wheels. But regulatory approval, liability questions, and edge cases suggest human controls will persist beyond five years. Reduction in use, not elimination of hardware.

Traditional Watches

Smartwatches dominate sales, but analog watches have become fashion items and status symbols rather than functional timekeeping devices. This may preserve them indefinitely as accessories rather than technology.

Desktop Computers

Mobile computing dominates consumer use. But creative professionals, gamers, and knowledge workers benefit from desktop power and ergonomics. Decline continues but full elimination is unlikely within five years.

Paper Books

E-readers and tablets make books accessible and portable. But print book sales remain stable, supported by the reading experience, gift-giving, and collection value. Coexistence rather than replacement seems likely.

timeline
    title Technology Obsolescence Timeline
    2026 : Physical SIM (niche)
           : Passwords (declining)
    2028 : Charging cables (backup)
           : Physical wallet (optional)
           : Standalone GPS (dead)
    2030 : Remote controls (rare)
           : Printed receipts (rare)
           : Plastic cards (minimal)
    2031 : Legacy tech period
           : Most transitions complete

Why These, Why Now?

The technologies on this list share common characteristics:

Superior alternatives exist: Each technology has a replacement that’s genuinely better on most dimensions, not just newer. Passkeys are more secure AND easier. Wireless charging is more convenient. eSIM is more flexible.

Infrastructure is ready: Standards are finalized. Manufacturing has scaled. Distribution channels exist. The replacement isn’t experimental—it’s shipping in volume.

Incentives align: Businesses benefit from the transition (lower costs, better user experience). Consumers benefit (convenience, security). Regulators approve or mandate changes. All parties push in the same direction.

Generational shift: Younger users have never relied on the old technology. They don’t need convincing; they need the older generation to catch up.

Technologies that lack these characteristics—where alternatives are compromised, infrastructure is immature, or incentives conflict—will take longer to transition regardless of technical superiority.

Generative Engine Optimization

Technology transitions create GEO opportunities and challenges.

Content About Dying Technologies

As technologies decline, search volume for help with those technologies declines too. Content creators must recognize when to stop investing in dying platforms. Writing detailed guides for physical SIM management makes less sense each year.

Conversely, transition content—“how to switch from X to Y”—peaks during the transition period. Understanding these timing windows is a practical GEO skill.

AI and Technology Prediction

AI tools excel at pattern matching across historical data. Using AI to analyze technology adoption curves, identify transition signals, and forecast obsolescence is a legitimate application. The predictions in this article were informed by analyzing adoption data with AI assistance.

Adapting to Change

GEO skills include recognizing when platforms and formats are shifting. The ability to identify dying technologies early, divest from declining platforms, and invest in emerging ones translates directly to content strategy, product development, and career planning.

The meta-skill is reading transition signals: when major companies exit a market, when regulatory pressure mounts, when younger demographics abandon a technology. These signals predict content and skill value depreciation.

What This Means for You

Practical implications of these transitions:

Stop Buying

Don’t invest in dying technologies:

• Skip the next physical SIM phone
• Consider wireless-first charging setups
• Avoid password managers that don’t support passkeys
• Think twice about physical card proliferation

Start Preparing

Get ahead of transitions:

• Enable eSIM on your current phone if available
• Set up passkeys for major services
• Add digital wallet credentials
• Consolidate controls into smartphone apps

Manage the Transition

Smooth handoff from old to new:

• Keep one backup solution (a cable, a password record, a physical card)
• Document processes that will need updating
• Help less technical family members transition
• Dispose of obsolete devices responsibly

The Emotional Dimension

Technology transitions aren’t purely rational. We develop attachments to objects and processes. The wallet your grandfather gave you. The satisfaction of physical button clicks. The ritual of inserting a key card.

These attachments are valid. They’re also not reasons to resist beneficial change. You can appreciate what something meant while accepting that its time has passed.

I still own a film camera. I never use it. But I keep it because it represents a way of engaging with photography that mattered to me. The memory doesn’t require continued use.

Similarly, you might keep a favorite old remote, a well-worn wallet, a collection of cables. Nostalgia and practicality can coexist. Just don’t let nostalgia prevent you from enjoying genuinely better alternatives.

Mochi has no nostalgia. She adapted instantly when I removed the ethernet cables. She didn’t mourn the wired router. She found new sunny spots and moved on. Perhaps there’s wisdom in that simplicity.

Five Years from Now

Picture your daily experience in 2031:

You wake up. Your phone charged overnight on the nightstand surface—no cable, no positioning required. You authenticate to your work systems with a glance at the camera. No passwords to type.

You leave home. Phone in pocket, nothing else required. It’s your wallet, your keys, your ID, your transit pass. The physical objects that once filled your pockets and bag have collapsed into software.

Your car navigation—or the autonomous vehicle you summoned—knows where you’re going from your calendar. No address entry, no standalone devices.

At the store, payment is automatic. Receipt appears in your phone. The transaction is complete before you’ve thought about it.

Back home, you ask the room to adjust lighting and play music. No remote to find, no app to open. Context-aware systems anticipate preferences.

This isn’t science fiction. It’s the logical extension of transitions already underway. The technologies dying today are making room for this experience.

Final Thoughts

Technology death is natural. It’s how progress works. Better solutions replace inferior ones, sometimes gradually, sometimes rapidly. Resistance is futile and counterproductive; adaptation is the only viable strategy.

The technologies in this article had good runs. Physical SIM cards served us for three decades. Passwords protected us (poorly) for half a century. Cables powered our devices reliably if inconveniently. They deserve acknowledgment for what they enabled.

But their time is ending. The replacements are better by almost every measure—more convenient, more secure, more capable. Mourning the old ways makes sense emotionally; clinging to them practically does not.

In five years, this article will seem obvious. Of course physical SIM cards disappeared—what else would happen? Of course passwords faded—they were always terrible. The transitions will feel inevitable in retrospect, even if they feel uncertain today.

Start adapting now. The future arrives whether you’re ready or not, but readiness makes it feel like progress rather than disruption.

What technologies would you add to this list? In five years, we’ll know which predictions held and which missed. Until then, watch the signals, prepare for change, and don’t buy another dedicated GPS device.